Monthly Archives: July 2011

Although I think it is a very low probability, here is how things might play out if  our worst nightmare comes true and the debt ceiling is not extended for a reasonable period of time.  I think what you will … Continue reading →

After many months we got a reading in unemployment claims which was below 400K, they came in at 398K. I think that is the main reason you are seeing a bit of a rise in the market today. As I … Continue reading →

Considering the looming deadline of the debt default the market is acting pretty sanguine. I think the market is operating under the viewpoint that a voluntary debt default is so absurd that even our politicians are not capable of such … Continue reading →

Pretty cool tool from Bloomberg which lets you decide how you will allocate the money if we don’t extend the debt limit. Debt Limit Tool

For those of you who think the republican party has gone too much to the right, I found this little gem on the web. http://republicansforobama.org/

Peter Orszag has a very good article which offers a sobering view of the future of the US economy. It is a very well written article and it also makes a good point that the size of the budget deficit … Continue reading →

Treasury has a good document clarifying things about the debt limit.  I think the document is apolitical and does layout the facts correctly. Debt Limit Myth Vs Fact I also found a poll by the Pew Research Center which had … Continue reading →

We have had a wild ride in the market for the last few days due to the rise in yields for Italian govt bonds. This raised the fear that maybe the European crisis is spreading to Italy. Italy is a … Continue reading →

Looks like the positive ADP report mislead everyone. The expectations(including my own) had risen that the official jobs report also might come in with a positive surprise. We got the exact opposite, it was much worse than the original lower … Continue reading →

Today the ADP private sector jobs data showed a pretty large upside surprise. The number showed 157K jobs created in the private sector in June compared to just 36K in May. The expectations were around 70K. Muhtar Kent, the CEO … Continue reading →