The Economist has a very interesting chart (link) on oil production and consumption. I was quite surprised by the fact that oil consumption has exceeded production of conventional oil for many years. In 2010 the gap was at a maximum with consumption exceeding production by about 5 million barrels a day. The gap is being made up by oil from non-conventional resources like bio-fuels etc. Unless we have a technological breakthrough or another recession it is hard to see a sustained downward move in energy prices.
The original source of the data is BP’s “Statistical Review of World Energy”(link). I glanced through this report and it is a treasure trove of data and charts on the energy markets.