Market view – 04/01/2011

Same old stuff. We continue to get very consistent data with a moderately growing economy. Jobs were a little better than expected and Manufacturing ISM came inline with pretty high expectations. On the negative side construction came in lower than expected. Construction remains the weak spot in the economy. Residential construction now has hit extremely low levels, so I think we are close to a bottom but we will scrape at the bottom for a few more years.
The market is reacting as expected with a slight positive bias.

I think we could have a small pullback over the next few days as there are some technical studies which show that historically a gap up on a positive jobs report do tend to be decent short term selling opportunities.

More importantly oil has started to creep back up again. So that is another negative also.

As I have said in previous posts, none of these are high probability setups and I have a very low conviction on market direction at this point.

In my next post I will talk about a trade which I think has a high probability of success.

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