Market View – 03/31/2011

The economic data from yesterday and today continue to point to a moderately improving economy. The weekly unemployment claims data has stabilized below 400K/week and the ADP report came in at 200K private sector jobs growth. When you include some losses from the public sector I think we are in an environment of creating 175K jobs/month and slowly creeping up to reaching 200-250K jobs/month in a few months. The monster employment index came in with a big positive surprise today morning which is good news.
So we continue in this environment of slow and steady growth.

Today is the end of the month and we still haven’t had that many earnings warnings, that is a good indicator that the first quarter was another good quarter for earnings and the market will probably have an upward bias as we head into earnings releases.

As a trader one gets an opportunity to make money when the market is wrongly priced. Although I want the economy to continue to improve, from a trading perspective there will be better opportunities to make money if we get some negative data points as the market is not priced for negative news at this point.

So my game plan is to accumulate on lower end of the trading ranges rather than shorting until I see some negative information.
But overall as I have indicated in my previous posts, I am not feeling strongly about the market direction as I think the market is priced reasonably for the data that is coming in.

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